Why 2024 will be a pivotal year for venture capital
After a tough year for VC, there are several encouraging signs that 2024 will be a catalytic year.
Despite ongoing economic turbulence, some of the most transformative technologies that have ever been developed – from AI to alternative energy – are entering a more mature phase of their existence. This presents exceptional opportunities for disciplined and data-driven investors, and there will undoubtedly be some huge wins for VCs next year.
One of the keys to fully leveraging these opportunities is the ability to distinguish overhyped companies from the ones that have staying power. This means closely monitoring market and economic conditions, taking a hard look at operating costs, cash burn, etc., and pinpointing the unique value propositions of companies in rapidly emerging fields like AI and cybersecurity. While VC will likely recover in 2024, the global economic situation remains precarious – from geopolitical tension to slashed growth projections to high interest rates.
Despite all the challenges VCs confront in 2024, this is an exciting time for investors. Revolutionary technologies like AI are being adopted on a vast scale, emerging fields such as climate tech and cybersecurity are attracting extraordinary talent, and there are many innovative early-stage companies that have massive growth potential. Navigating 2024 won’t be easy or straightforward for VCs, but investors who do it well will be rewarded.
The state of Venture Capital in 2024
After a surge in deals and valuations in 2021, VC experienced a precipitous decline for most of 2022. The number of deals was almost cut in half between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022, while global VC funding collapsed from $681 billion in 2021 to $445 billion the following year. However, fundraising has recovered in 2023, driven by startups in AI and sustainability. We should expect this recovery to continue into 2024, with modest increases in deal volume and total fundraising – as well as a few more unicorns than we saw in 2023.
What accounts for the mixed outlook for VCs in 2024? One of the main reasons is ongoing global economic instability – while inflation has fallen in recent months, interest rates remain at recent highs; the IMF is forecasting a growth slowdown in 2024 (to a rate well below historical averages); and the threat of recession can’t be dismissed. While there are a few positive signs – such as a strong labor market – VCs will be especially focused on indicators of financial health like cash burn and overhead instead of emphasizing growth at all costs. It’s also likely that VCs will demand more attractive deal terms, such as participating preference shares, liquidation preference multiples, and guaranteed dividends.
VCs must find a balance between the pursuit of unprecedented investment opportunities in fields like AI and the management of difficult economic circumstances. A recession could open up new avenues for investment as an influx of top-tier talent pours into growing tech fields, but prices remain depressed. Some valuations will be in the stratosphere, while others will be far too low. These are just a few of the reasons why 2024 will be such a pivotal year for VCs – even as risks abound, investors will be positioning themselves for robust growth in the years to come.
AI will move from experimentation to adoption
One of Warren Buffett’s most famous aphorisms is “You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.” While AI presents an ocean of opportunity for companies, consumers, and investors, 2024 will be a revealing year for the technology. AI will continue to be the main attraction for American Venture Capital investing in 2024, but we’re at the beginning of a years-long hype cycle that will separate viable companies from those that are swimming naked.
AI entered the mainstream like never before in late 2022 and 2023 – OpenAI’s ChatGPT hit 100 million monthly active users just two months after its release, making it the fastest-growing consumer app of all time. It’s already clear that AI will completely transform business processes, content creation, customer experiences, and many other fields. But the move to implementation isn’t so obvious – one central question for VCs is how AI will be integrated into product portfolios, operations, data analysis and decision-making, and a wide range of other processes. We will likely see a profusion of vertical-specific AI solutions in 2024 as companies find ways to leverage the technology for their specific purposes. The most successful companies will innovate on existing business models while taking advantage of differentiated datasets.
While VCs will be circumspect about AI investments as the field moves from experimentation to adoption, they also recognize that the technology has already demonstrated proof of concept on a vast scale. The most pressing question now is which companies will be able to harness the power of AI to offer commercially viable solutions.
How VCs are thinking about tech more broadly
Artificial intelligence is a major focus for venture capital right now, but other technologies are set to fundamentally reshape many industries. For example, climate mitigation tech such as solar power will continue to see gains in usage and efficiency. Solar PV accounts for two-thirds of the projected increase in global renewable energy capacity this year – a total that reached 440 GW, the largest absolute increase ever recorded. Companies that make renewable markets work more smoothly – by managing data for power purchase agreements, for example, which will be popular amid volatile electricity prices – will see strong growth on the back of these trends.
Cybersecurity is another high-growth field that Venture Capital investors are watching closely. The average cost of a data breach hit $4.45 million in 2023 – a new record. Cybercriminals are increasingly using AI to launch more effective and destructive attacks, which has implications for insurance companies that are trying to determine how to underwrite risks posed by generative AI and cyberattacks more generally. Of course, AI can also be used to mitigate cyberthreats, and there are countless positive intersections between AI and other emerging technologies – such as robotics and vertical SaaS.
Next year will be eventful for VCs and companies. We will probably see more unicorn bankruptcies like WeWork, while investors and early-stage companies will become more cost-conscious. High interest rates and a sluggish economy will make revenue growth and high-value exits more difficult. But none of these obstacles change the fact that we’re also witnessing one of the most sweeping technological shifts in history. VC investors will continue to be careful in 2024, but they can’t afford to stay on the sidelines.